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The U.S. avoided recession last year. What comes next?
January 30, 2024

The U.S. avoided recession last year. What comes next?

January 30, 2024

Entering 2023, more than 85% of economists expected a U.S. recession before year’s end. They had good reason: The yield curve, usually a harbinger of recession, inverted in July 2022, when rates for two-year Treasury bonds surpassed those for 10-year bonds. Meanwhile, on Main Street, Google searches for the term “recession” hit the highest mark…

Risks of bad breadth: Market concentration in 5 charts
January 30, 2024

Risks of bad breadth: Market concentration in 5 charts

January 30, 2024

Just seven companies have kept the S&P 500 Index afloat this year, with Apple, Meta, Microsoft, NVIDIA, Amazon, Alphabet and Tesla driving the vast majority of gains. Stretched valuations are also a concern for some investors: While not as wide as recent history, current forward price-to-earnings ratio on the top 20 stocks in the S&P…

As rate hikes near end, historic investor opportunity may begin
January 30, 2024

As rate hikes near end, historic investor opportunity may begin

January 30, 2024

To say this has been an interesting year in financial markets is an understatement. Equities have been stronger than most expected, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is up 37 basis points as of September 13. So where are we now as we head into the homestretch of 2023? I believe we’re on the cusp…

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